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In October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as British prime minister, he became the fifth consecutive UK leader to occupy the position in six years.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is occurring in France, now on its sixth prime minister in two years – three of them in the last ten months?

The latest prime minister, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on Tuesday, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his government’s survival.

But it is, in the best case, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for many years – perhaps not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no easy escape.

Minority Rule

Essential context: ever since Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, France has had a divided assembly separated into three opposing factions – the left, far right and his own centre-right alliance – without any group holding a clear majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces dual debt and deficit crises: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now almost twice the EU threshold, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In mid-September, the leader named his close ally Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

To such an extent that the following day, he stepped down. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “party loyalties” and “personal ambitions” would make his job virtually unworkable.

A further unexpected development: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for two more days in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a task, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers openly criticized the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to prevent a vote. The president’s office announced the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron kept his promise – and on Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So recently – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the country’s rival political parties were “creating discord” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Could he survive – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be frozen until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already on board, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the administration would likely endure those votes, due on Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS explicitly warned that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the right-leaning parties are themselves split on dealing with the administration – some are still itching to topple it.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and longer-term survival – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To achieve that, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, like his predecessors, toast.

Most expect this to occur soon. Although, by an unlikely turn, the divided parliament musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look bleak.

So is there a way out? Snap elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But this also remains unclear.

Polls suggest the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that France’s voters, having elected a far-right president, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not escape its predicament until its leaders acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that clear majorities are a bygone phenomenon, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Many think that transformation will not be feasible under the country’s current constitution. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and even disincentivizes – the formation of ruling alliances common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”