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Iranian authorities are considering the transfer of a massive number of Afghan refugees across its western borders into Iraq and Turkey. This step is part of what authorities call as a inevitably more aggressive and unpredictable strategy in the wake of the attacks on its nuclear facilities and the European reimposition of United Nations penalties.

Comprehensive Strategy Involves Expansion of Missile Development

The broad strategy encompasses expansion of its missile programme, bolstering air defense systems, suspending cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog and, on 18 October, preventing the formation of a UN committee to oversee the administration of the restored penalties. Officials remain opposed to resuming negotiations with the US, convinced that discussions would not succeed.

Refugee Threat Echoes Erdoğan's Warning

The threat to send refugees towards the west and also eastward has echoes of the warning issued by the leader of Turkey, President Erdoğan, who warned of sending millions of Syrian refugees towards Europe.

Tehran has periodically been host to as many as 6 million Afghani migrants, but Amnesty International reports that in the current year, one million Afghans have been sent back to Afghanistan, after escaping poverty or Taliban rule.

The organization alleged the mass expulsions were increased in the wake of the June 12 Israeli strikes on Tehran's officials and nuclear facilities. It estimates half a million Afghan nationals have been sent back over the border after the attacks.

Document Nullification for Migrants

Until March 2025, several million Afghans had been permitted to temporarily legalise their stay in the country by securing a registration paper. Those granted this document were eligible for limited services, such as public health services, schooling, employment permits, banking access and ability to enter into housing contracts. However, officials invalidated these registration papers.

The Iranian authorities have provided varying numbers about the number of Afghan refugees in the country, but estimates suggest a minimum of 2 million reside without legal status. The UN high commissioner for refugees has predicted that as many as four million Afghans could be returned to their homeland in the coming months.

Comprehensive Plan of Repair and Recovery In Progress

A broader programme of repair and recovery is under way in Iran, involving debates about the tools it possesses to safeguard its interests after the Israeli-US attacks in the summer. Iran has recalled its ambassadors from France, Germany and the UK for discussions at the Iranian foreign office about the crisis.

Officials are leaning against withdrawing from the NPT, in part because the substantive steps have already been taken to halt collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Diplomatic Proposals and Global Reactions

Tehran representatives state that in talks with France at the United Nations meeting, Tehran proposed to permit nuclear monitors to visit one bombed nuclear site at Natanz, and also offered to report on its stockpile of enriched nuclear material within 45 days. As a counteroffer, Tehran sought the risk of reinstatement of United Nations penalties to be lifted permanently, instead of a temporary suspension, the original French-led offer.

Iran claims the United States declined to participate with these proposals, part of what Tehran believes an increasingly unstable and unprofessional US diplomatic operation run by Steve Witkoff, a man that the Iranians regard as either outside the loop or duplicitous. For example, Witkoff had sent the Iranian delegation traveling to the United Nations information about a discussion he planned to conduct with Iran’s diplomats, but he then scrapped the meeting altogether.

Upcoming Diplomatic Clash and Moscow's Position

In the next probable diplomatic clash with the US, analysts predict that on 18 October Moscow, as current president of the UN Security Council, will exercise its authority as a permanent member to block the establishment of a UN committee to supervise and manage the sanctions the EU reimposed last week.

Moscow and Beijing have sent letters to the UN leader, António Guterres, to state EU nations lacked the authority to snap the sanctions back as they did in late September, as they believe Europe was no longer a participant in the nuclear deal, and had not used the dispute resolution mechanism.

The deadlock makes it likely that certain nations may not adhere with the enforcement of the UN sanctions. Japan, Canada and Turkey have already started to reimpose the sanctions, but countries in the Russian and Chinese orbit will refuse. The Turkish president, Erdoğan, for instance, signed an executive order ordering asset freezes on Iranian individuals and entities associated with Iran's atomic projects and key government financial institutions.

Impact of Sanctions on Iran's Economy

Authorities state the most damaging sanctions on the country are the current American restrictions, and by comparison the restored UN sanctions dating back from from 2006-10 are relatively narrow, since they do not cover Iran’s oil programme but instead specific asset freezes, arms limits and bans on missile trade.

But Tehran accepts that even the partial return of UN penalties is affecting economic confidence and on the exchange rate. The value of the US dollar in Iran’s free market has reached an all-time high.